YouTube video published on 2026/06/20 This weekly briefing is also available in podcast formats on your favorite platforms (YouTube, Spotify, Apple Podcasts, etc.). Executive Summary The global financial system is showing increasingly evident signs of fragility, echoing in certain ways the monetary policy errors of 2008. Behind the storefront of reassuring official reports, a deep dive into private data highlights a very different reality. This summary breaks down the major i

YouTube video published 2026/06/11 This weekly briefing is also available in podcast formats on your favorite platforms (YouTube, Spotify, Apple Podcasts, etc.). Introduction This Friday, June 12th 2026, the financial world will witness what is being advertised as the investment opportunity of the decade: the initial public offering of Elon Musk’s SpaceX under the ticker symbol SPCX on the NASDAQ. The media hype machine is entering a state of absolute mass euphoria. But as yo

YouTube video published on 2026/05/18 This weekly briefing is also available in podcast formats on your favorite platforms (YouTube, Spotify, Apple Podcasts, etc.). Executive Summary: Anatomy of a Mechanical Top The stock market is currently navigating an extreme phase of euphoria that demands rigorous investor vigilance. While the S&P 500 continues to string together new record highs, a deep dive into technical, macroeconomic, and mechanical indicators reveals a total and da

YouTube video published on 2026/05/05 This weekly briefing is also available in podcast formats on your favorite platforms (Spotify, Apple Podcasts, etc.). Summary We are currently witnessing a historic divergence between a euphoric stock market and a deteriorating real economy. While major indices like the S&P 500 hover near all-time highs, technical indicators are flashing warnings last seen during the 1929 Great Depression and the 2000 dot-com bubble. This "Wile E. Coyote"

Right now, the market is not easy to navigate. The price action over the past few weeks has become increasingly unusual and untethered from reality. This is typically what we see at the top (max confusion), and most of my indicators still point in that direction For instance, the market is showing a return of euphoria, meme stock mania, and a level of complacency that feels eerily similar to the setups before the 2000, 2008, and 2020 crashes (respectively). Another data point

Note 1 (april 19th) : I'm a bit under the weather this weekend, so there won't be a full analysis video. But I still wanted to give you a quick update to explain what happened, why it happened, and the probabilities going forward. Timing-wise, I also wanted to remind you that this new high could offer a breakeven exit for those who regretted staying invested during the recent low. Especially when you consider that this spectacular bounce we just saw on the SP500 is a statisti

Note : I sent the following market alert to my free mailing list yesterday (April 15th 2026). If you want to receive these timely, actionable insights straight to your inbox, make sure to join the list at the bottom of this page so you don't miss the next one. The Alert: The exceptional rebound we have seen over the last two weeks on the S&P 500 (which I anticipated, even if it slightly exceeded my target) is not built on solid foundations. So, even though the price of the S&

YouTube video published on 2026/04/11 This weekly briefing is also available in podcast formats on your favorite platforms (Spotify, Apple Podcasts, etc.) . Summary This video briefing discusses a warning signal from the Fed regarding the growing exposure of major US banks to private lending, as highlighted by a recent Bloomberg headline. Jamie Dimon's concerns about potential private equity losses and the broader implications for leveraged finance are also examined. We analy

This weekly briefing is also available in podcast formats on your favorite platforms (Spotify, Apple Podcasts, etc.) . Summary After five consecutive weeks of declines, the S&P 500 is bouncing, but investors should beware of a classic bull trap. With markets closed this Friday right as crucial Non-Farm Payroll (NFP) and unemployment data drops, we are facing a massive gap risk going into the weekend. In this video, we uncover Jerome Powell's quiet pivot, analyze the housing m

This weekly briefing is also available in podcast formats on your favorite platforms (Spotify, Apple Podcasts, etc.) . Summary History doesn't repeat itself, but it rhymes (with 2008). Today, the Fed, ECB, BoC, and BoE are preparing to RAISE interest rates for the same erroneous reasons they did between Bear Stearns and Lehman Brothers. In this critical update, I break down why these central banks are getting blinded by a transitory oil shock, ignoring a real economy that is

This monthly briefing is available in three formats . You will find the embedded video and the detailed text right here on this page, or you can listen to the audio podcast on your favorite platforms (Spotify, Apple Podcasts, etc.) . Introduction Welcome to my new weekly market update. If you have been following my content, you know I usually publish deep-dive monthly briefings and occasional ad-hoc alerts. However, the macroeconomic environment is moving so fast right now th

This monthly briefing is available in three formats . You will find the embedded video and the detailed text right here on this page, or you can listen to the audio podcast on your favorite platforms (Spotify, Apple Podcasts, etc.) . As a contrarian investor, the most dangerous phrase you can hear is, "Everything is fine." Right now, the mainstream financial media is cheering on resilient narratives and hoping for quick resolutions to global conflicts. But my pattern recognit

VIDEO TIMESTAMPS 0:00 - Introduction: Stage 2 of the private credit crisis 0:40 - The 3 stages of a credit crisis explained 1:51 - Blue Owl Capital: The permanent halt on redemptions & the PR spin 4:38 - Bank unrealized losses and the private credit black box 5:41 - Contagion risk and the 2008 Bear Stearns parallel 6:53 - The Fed's private credit warning & the sudden Repo market spike 8:25 - Stock market update: Nvidia earnings and the tech wall 9:11 - Retail buys while "Smar

Executive Summary If you only looked at the S&P 500 closing prices in January, you might think the "Soft Landing" is secure. You would be wrong. Under the surface, the machinery that has driven this market (specifically unlimited AI financing, "strong" labor data, and the Yen carry trade) is fracturing. In the past 4 weeks, we witnessed three critical fractures: A "6-sigma" crash in Silver. A quiet implosion in Private Credit. The revelation that 1.2 million jobs reported by

Based on the video analysis from Sunday, February 1st, 2026 If you checked your screens in the last 48 hours, you saw red. A lot of red. Silver dropped 40% (from the top) in a single session, and Bitcoin broke a critical support level. Unfortunately, I ran out of time and was not able to record the video analysis in English this weekend. That is why I am providing you with a detailed summary in this article, featuring the key charts I used. Note : If you prefer video, you ca

Jan 27th note : Given the urgency of the market data, I am publishing this analysis immediately so you have it tonight. The charts mentioned in the text will be added throughout the day tomorrow. One crazy week just passed, and another lies ahead. If you follow mainstream financial news, you are hearing about "new all-time highs" and a resilient economy. But if you look at the data I analyze, the story is very different. That is why I am sending you this urgent alert: things

So much has happened in the last 5 weeks that I initially planned a one-hour deep dive. But with geopolitical and economic events accelerating, I made an executive decision to pivot to an Executive Briefing format. Instead of a long lecture, I am giving you the critical signal you need right now to navigate what I call the "Wile E. Coyote" moment . Just like the cartoon character, the economy has run off the cliff. The legs are still spinning, the illusion of motion is there

UPDATE #1 (Monday Dec 29th at Market Close) As anticipated in the alert below, the volatility has arrived. Silver suffered a violent correction today, dropping ~11% since my warning email and nearly 16% from the Sunday futures peak. The Reality Check: The CME margin hikes triggered the expected liquidity flush. However, do not panic. New data (including the $134 solar breakeven price and actual leverage levels) suggests this is not a repeat of the 2011 crash, but a tactical r

Episode Summary Is it time to buy the dip, or is it time to run for the hills? In this episode of the Invest Smart, Not Hard Podcast, I sat down with Kristen to tackle the confusing signals in today's market. We are seeing a massive disconnect: stock markets are hitting all-time highs while the real economy (and the job market) is flashing red warning signs. If you are feeling torn between "FOMO" (Fear Of Missing Out) and the fear of a crash, you are not alone. In this breakd