This weekly briefing is also available in podcast formats on your favorite platforms (Spotify, Apple Podcasts, etc.) . Summary After five consecutive weeks of declines, the S&P 500 is bouncing, but investors should beware of a classic bull trap. With markets closed this Friday right as crucial Non-Farm Payroll (NFP) and unemployment data drops, we are facing a massive gap risk going into the weekend. In this video, we uncover Jerome Powell's quiet pivot, analyze the housing m

This weekly briefing is also available in podcast formats on your favorite platforms (Spotify, Apple Podcasts, etc.) . Summary History doesn't repeat itself, but it rhymes (with 2008). Today, the Fed, ECB, BoC, and BoE are preparing to RAISE interest rates for the same erroneous reasons they did between Bear Stearns and Lehman Brothers. In this critical update, I break down why these central banks are getting blinded by a transitory oil shock, ignoring a real economy that is

This monthly briefing is available in three formats . You will find the embedded video and the detailed text right here on this page, or you can listen to the audio podcast on your favorite platforms (Spotify, Apple Podcasts, etc.) . Introduction Welcome to my new weekly market update. If you have been following my content, you know I usually publish deep-dive monthly briefings and occasional ad-hoc alerts. However, the macroeconomic environment is moving so fast right now th

This monthly briefing is available in three formats . You will find the embedded video and the detailed text right here on this page, or you can listen to the audio podcast on your favorite platforms (Spotify, Apple Podcasts, etc.) . As a contrarian investor, the most dangerous phrase you can hear is, "Everything is fine." Right now, the mainstream financial media is cheering on resilient narratives and hoping for quick resolutions to global conflicts. But my pattern recognit

VIDEO TIMESTAMPS 0:00 - Introduction: Stage 2 of the private credit crisis 0:40 - The 3 stages of a credit crisis explained 1:51 - Blue Owl Capital: The permanent halt on redemptions & the PR spin 4:38 - Bank unrealized losses and the private credit black box 5:41 - Contagion risk and the 2008 Bear Stearns parallel 6:53 - The Fed's private credit warning & the sudden Repo market spike 8:25 - Stock market update: Nvidia earnings and the tech wall 9:11 - Retail buys while "Smar

Executive Summary If you only looked at the S&P 500 closing prices in January, you might think the "Soft Landing" is secure. You would be wrong. Under the surface, the machinery that has driven this market (specifically unlimited AI financing, "strong" labor data, and the Yen carry trade) is fracturing. In the past 4 weeks, we witnessed three critical fractures: A "6-sigma" crash in Silver. A quiet implosion in Private Credit. The revelation that 1.2 million jobs reported by

Based on the video analysis from Sunday, February 1st, 2026 If you checked your screens in the last 48 hours, you saw red. A lot of red. Silver dropped 40% (from the top) in a single session, and Bitcoin broke a critical support level. Unfortunately, I ran out of time and was not able to record the video analysis in English this weekend. That is why I am providing you with a detailed summary  in this article, featuring the key charts I used. Note : If you prefer video, you ca

Jan 27th note : Given the urgency of the market data, I am publishing this analysis immediately so you have it tonight. The charts mentioned in the text will be added throughout the day tomorrow. One crazy week just passed, and another lies ahead. If you follow mainstream financial news, you are hearing about "new all-time highs" and a resilient economy. But if you look at the data I analyze, the story is very different. That is why I am sending you this urgent alert: things

So much has happened in the last 5 weeks that I initially planned a one-hour deep dive. But with geopolitical and economic events accelerating, I made an executive decision to pivot to an Executive Briefing  format. Instead of a long lecture, I am giving you the critical signal you need right now to navigate what I call the "Wile E. Coyote" moment . Just like the cartoon character, the economy has run off the cliff. The legs are still spinning, the illusion of motion is there

UPDATE #1 (Monday Dec 29th at Market Close) As anticipated in the alert below, the volatility has arrived. Silver suffered a violent correction today, dropping ~11% since my warning email and nearly 16% from the Sunday futures peak. The Reality Check: The CME margin hikes triggered the expected liquidity flush. However, do not panic. New data (including the $134 solar breakeven price and actual leverage levels) suggests this is not a repeat of the 2011 crash, but a tactical r

Episode Summary Is it time to buy the dip, or is it time to run for the hills? In this episode of the Invest Smart, Not Hard Podcast, I sat down with Kristen to tackle the confusing signals in today's market. We are seeing a massive disconnect: stock markets are hitting all-time highs while the real economy (and the job market) is flashing red warning signs. If you are feeling torn between "FOMO" (Fear Of Missing Out) and the fear of a crash, you are not alone. In this breakd

If you only read the headlines, the AI trade seems stronger than ever. But if you look at what is happening behind the scenes, the narrative has shifted from "Unlimited Growth" to "Crisis Management." In the last 10 days, we have witnessed a coordinated panic among the biggest players in the industry. From secret defensive memos to internal "Code Reds," the actions of Nvidia and OpenAI suggest they are preparing for a major shift. At the same time, the real economy (the one t

Why the "Fear & Greed" index might be wrong, and why portfolio protection is cheaper than ever. While the US markets are closed for Thanksgiving, the economic signals are flashing red. I sent an urgent email to my private list this morning because we are seeing a massive divergence: The famous "Fear & Greed" index is showing Fear near all-time highs. That makes no sense. Is the indicator broken? My custom market dashboard points to YES . It shows that retail investors are act

If you watched the markets over the last 48 hours, you witnessed absolute madness. There was a massive gap up, a sharp dump, and then a sudden reversal. It feels like a casino right now because the "house" (the Fed and the Government) is intervening to keep the game going. But here is the irony: AI is actually popping the AI bubble. In the last 72 hours, investors have used AI tools to dig through earnings reports and SEC filings. What they found—from hidden red flags in Nvid

We are at one of the most confusing and critical moments in recent market history. On the surface, the stock market is near all-time highs. But underneath, the entire foundation is showing signs of a severe breakdown. US households now have 52% of their financial assets in stocks, a level even higher than the 2000 dot-com bubble. Retail investors are "all-in" and using extreme leverage. But at the exact same time, corporate insiders are selling their own stock at the fastest

Monthly Recap #1: October 3rd - November 13th 2025 INTRODUCTION Welcome to the first monthly recap, as announced in the Oct 15th blog and social media post. We’ll go over the key stories that mattered over the last six weeks, what they mean, and how they impact your money. My priority is to help you potentially avoid the type of stock market crashes that downgrade, delay, or outright cancel your retirement plans.  SUMMARY It is not easy to see a major trend shift while being

A Shift in Strategy for Better Insights For those of you who have been following my weekly market recaps, thank you for your time and attention. I appreciate your support. As part of my commitment to providing the most effective and time-efficient insights, I'm making a strategic change to my content schedule. Moving forward, I will be shifting from a weekly recap to a more impactful, two-part model: a comprehensive monthly deep dive and ad-hoc "Signal Alerts." Why This Chang

Introduction The story propping up the entire stock market is starting to unravel. For months, the narrative has been simple: an insatiable demand for AI chips is driving a boom so powerful it can single-handedly keep the economy afloat. But new details reveal this narrative has a dirty secret, one involving clever accounting that looks eerily similar to past corporate scandals. This week, the story broke wide open. Mainstream outlets are now openly questioning the "revenue r

Introduction This was the week the Bank of Canada (BoC) and the US Federal Reserve (FED) were finally forced to act, cutting interest rates because even their flawed and delayed data could no longer justify the "wait and see" approach they've clung to for the past six months and year, respectively. At the same time, the AI growth narrative (the only pillar that prevented a technical recession and single-handedly launched the market into a bubble), began to show serious signs