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The Hidden Risk Before the Fed
- Nico DE BONY
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- Jul 20
- 2 min read
Updated: Jul 28
YouTube video published on 2026/07/20
This monthly briefing (part 2 of 2) is also available in podcast formats on your favorite platforms (YouTube, Spotify, Apple Podcasts, etc.).
Table of Content
Executive Summary
Video and Timestamps
Visual Supports from Video
Resources and Programs
Executive Summary
The next two weeks could be the most important of the summer for financial markets.
Three major central banks will meet, most of the Magnificent Seven will report earnings, and several signs of fragility are already emerging beneath the surface.
In this briefing, I examine the underestimated risk coming from Japan, the new Chinese Kimi K3 model, the wave of margin calls in South Korea, and the extreme use of leverage in the United States. I also review the latest technical signals for the S&P 500, the Nasdaq, and Nvidia, along with the Fed’s recent communications, the private credit crisis, the labor market, U.S. GDP, and the growing financial pressures facing consumers.
Finally, we will look at why oil could quickly complicate the situation, what China is actually doing with gold, where the viral $38,000-per-ounce target comes from, and why gold, silver, and Bitcoin could benefit from a rotation of capital out of semiconductors.
Video & Timestamps
0:00 Two Critical Weeks for Financial Markets
0:50 Central Banks and Big Tech Earnings
1:29 Japan: The Risk Markets Are Underestimating
2:49 Kimi K3: Another DeepSeek Moment?
3:16 South Korea: 1.2 Million Margin Calls
4:01 Extreme Leverage in the U.S. Market
4:22 S&P 500 and Nasdaq Technical Warning Signs
5:07 SMH and Nvidia: How Far Could They Fall?
6:03 Fed Minutes: What the Headlines Missed
7:24 The Fed vs. Falling Inflation Expectations
8:00 Fed Task Forces: Major Policy Changes Ahead?
9:31 Kevin Warsh on Inflation and AI Investment
10:35 Private Credit: Redemptions and Record Defaults
12:15 U.S. Inflation and Signs of Demand Destruction
13:27 The U.S. Labor Market Is Weakening
14:40 The Real Unemployment Rate Could Be Much Higher
15:25 U.S. GDP: The GDPNow Warning
16:12 Consumer Delinquencies Continue to Rise
17:24 U.S. Housing Remains Stuck
17:55 Oil and Iran: Why the Risk Is Not Priced In
19:19 Gold: No Revaluation Announcement Yet
20:50 China, Hong Kong and the Viral $38,000 Gold Target
22:00 Silver Sentiment Reaches an Extreme Low
22:39 Are Investors Rotating Out of Semiconductors?
23:32 Bitcoin: Are We Close to a Bottom?
24:03 Newsletter, Charts and Additional Resources
Visual Supports from Video
Ressources et programme
Want to go further?
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Nico de Bony
