Gap Risk, Powell's Signals, & How to Lower Your Breakeven Price

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Summary

After five consecutive weeks of declines, the S&P 500 is bouncing, but investors should beware of a classic bull trap. With markets closed this Friday right as crucial Non-Farm Payroll (NFP) and unemployment data drops, we are facing a massive gap risk going into the weekend. In this video, we uncover Jerome Powell's quiet pivot, analyze the housing market's warning sign, and provide technical updates on Gold, Silver, Bitcoin, and the US Dollar (DXY) amid the accelerating private credit crisis. Finally, stay until the end for a full breakdown of the "Repair Trade," a zero-cost options strategy to lower your breakeven and escape losing positions (like GDX) safely.

👉 Link to the Interactive Repair Trade Calculator: 

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1HfhgHVleAoV0AntWjeQTSIedb2snXjkbk6b-f2ROfO8/edit?usp=sharing

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jU3t-Ve99fo

Timestamps

00:00 - The S&P 500 Bull Trap & Friday's Massive Gap Risk

01:05 - Jerome Powell's Quiet Pivot & Telling Body Language

02:48 - The Housing Market Warning (2008 vs. Now)

03:27 - S&P 500 Technical Analysis & Key Bounce Levels

05:24 - Gold & Silver Update: Digesting the Liquidity Drop

06:40 - Bitcoin (BTC) Price Targets & Upward Channel

07:21 - US Dollar (DXY) Bull Flag & Trendline Bounce

08:42 - Private Credit Crisis Accelerates (UBS Gating & KKR Downgrade)

10:12 - Is Private Credit Worse Than 2008 Subprime?

11:26 - The 3 Stages of a Financial Crisis

14:01 - Options Tutorial: The "Repair Trade" Strategy (GDX Example)

16:42 - Interactive Repair Trade Calculator

Nico de Bony

If you found this briefing helpful, feel free to share it. For those ready to build a defensive process, the links to my training are below.

• Watch my Free Masterclass to understand the 5 core hedging strategies.

• Watch the Practical Demo to see me execute these trades live.

• If you want to master this, check out my Self-Paced Course

• or apply for one of the few remaining spots in my 1-on-1 Coaching.