March 16th 2026 - The Market Buffer is Gone: Get Ready for a Volatile Week

Nico DE BONY
Mar 16
6 min read

This monthly briefing is available in three formats. You will find the embedded video and the detailed text right here on this page, or you can listen to the audio podcast on your favorite platforms (Spotify, Apple Podcasts, etc.).

Introduction

Welcome to my new weekly market update. If you have been following my content, you know I usually publish deep-dive monthly briefings and occasional ad-hoc alerts. However, the macroeconomic environment is moving so fast right now that waiting a full month to analyze the data is no longer viable. To keep you informed and protected, I am pivoting to weekly updates.

Depending on the week and the urgency of the data, this update will take one of three forms: a video, a blog post with an audio recording (posted to YouTube and podcasts), or an email-only alert. I will not always have the time to produce a video, so if you want to ensure you receive every single update - especially the time-sensitive email alerts - make sure you are subscribed to my free email list.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=G-qozUoaA6Y

TIMESTAMPS

0:00 - Introduction: The Pivot to Weekly Updates

0:59 - Part 1: Central Banks & The 2008 "Rearview Mirror"

2:48 - US Economy: Q4 GDP Downward Revision

3:38 - The Canadian Warning Signal (Canary in the Coal Mine)

4:20 - Part 2: The Private Credit "Doom Loop"

5:31 - Systemic Contagion: Bank Collateral Markdowns

6:50 - Part 3: OPEX & Negative Dealer Gamma Explained

8:21 - Broad Market Weakness: SPY & QQQ Technicals

9:02 - Part 4: Asset Class Breakdown & Oil Dynamics

10:55 - Gold ETF Outflows & Copper Short Squeeze Setup

12:05 - Bitcoin's Surprising Resilience & The US Dollar (DXY)

13:16 - Conclusion & Feedback Request

Part 1: The Central Bank Disconnect and The Rearview Mirror

This week is packed. We have six major central banks meeting to decide on interest rates over just three days:

Monday/Tuesday March 16-17: Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA)
Wednesday, March 18: US Federal Reserve (FED) and Bank of Canada (BoC)
Thursday, March 19: Bank of Japan (BoJ), European Central Bank (ECB), and Bank of England (BoE)

This marks the first major round of interest rate decisions and press conferences since the conflict in Iran escalated and the private credit crisis began to accelerate.

The problem is that central banks are driving by looking in the rearview mirror. We are seeing eerie similarities to 2008. Back then, despite a massive oil spike from $70 to $140 and underlying systemic rot, officials claimed inflation was the main threat. They argued for rate hikes, only to be forced into emergency cuts shortly after as the real economy cracked.

Today, the real economy is flashing red again. Last week, the real US gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 0.7 percent in the fourth quarter of 2025 (vs 1.4% in the first estimate and 4.4% in the previous quarter - Q3 2025).

https://www.bea.gov/news/2026/gdp-second-estimate-4th-quarter-and-year-2025

Look at Canada, which often acts as a canary in the coal mine for the USA. The Q4 GDP was actually negative, and the February job report was catastrophic. The latest job destruction there was about the same as in the USA, despite Canada being about 10 times smaller in terms of population. Full-time jobs collapsed by 108K, yet the Bank of Canada continues to point to inflation as the primary threat.

https://youtu.be/xLnq8Nez4f4?si=29nO9IMJ2M1bqOYZ

Part 2: The Private Credit "Doom Loop" Escalates

This economic deterioration is pouring gasoline on the private credit crisis. This is no longer just an isolated issue for shadow banks; the contagion is reaching systemic institutions.

https://youtu.be/EDi5ZnwXEVk?si=LEB-Ey9ao9_upgmD

Major funds like Cliffwater are joining BlackRock in gating their funds, meaning investors cannot get their money out. But the bigger story is that globally systemic banks are being dragged in. JP Morgan has begun "marking down the value of collateral." For those unfamiliar, this means the bank is lowering the official estimated value of the assets - in this case, software loans - that private credit funds used as a guarantee to borrow money. Deutsche Bank and Wells Fargo are also seeing their stock prices punished as their massive exposure to private credit comes to light.

https://x.com/elerianm/status/2032360719950250239

When the collateral value drops, it triggers a "margin call," forcing the funds to deposit more cash. To get that cash, they have to sell assets at a massive discount. This depresses the value across the entire sector, causing more bank scrutiny, more markdowns, and more forced selling. It is a textbook doom loop.

Part 3: OPEX and Negative Gamma - A Market Without Brakes

On top of this systemic risk, we are heading into OPEX, specifically "triple witching." This is a major event that happens four times a year when stock options, stock index futures, and stock index options all expire on the exact same day. It always brings a massive surge in trading volume.

However, this OPEX is particularly dangerous because the market is in a state of "negative dealer gamma."

To put it simply: market makers (the dealers who buy and sell options to provide liquidity) are currently positioned in a way that forces them to sell when the market drops and buy when it rises. Instead of acting as a shock absorber, they become an accelerator for volatility.

Think of negative dealer gamma like a market without friction to slow down price action near resistances and support. The market feels slippery, and the price is more likely to punch through these levels. If a normal market is like a drive in hilly terrain with cruise control on a sunny, dry day, a negative gamma market is like driving on a rainy day without cruise control and with the gas pedal stuck to the floor. It accelerates both uphill and downhill, making price action much more extreme.

SPY and QQQ are both in confirmed downtrends, sitting just above their critical 200-day moving averages, and market breadth has collapsed.

Part 4: Asset Class Breakdown

With all this systemic stress and a hot conflict in the Middle East, you would expect traditional market reactions, but the reality is vastly different:

Oil: Despite a disruption to 20% of global supply through the Strait of Hormuz, oil is currently capped under a glass ceiling. This is likely manipulated by sovereign nations, including the USA, selling short-term future contracts and releasing strategic oil reserves, hoping the conflict is short-lived.
- https://youtu.be/frhd5xHQ_5Y?si=H5qRKedBf5uCiGf1
- https://realinvestmentadvice.com/resources/blog/the-oil-curve-scary-headlines-vs-market-expectations/
Gold & Silver: Gold did not provide the expected safe-haven surge. However, we are seeing record outflows from the GLD ETF, suggesting major institutions are taking physical delivery of gold bars rather than selling. Silver remains technically weaker than gold.
Copper: Unlike Gold, Copper is being heavily shorted. It will likely resolve soon with either a severe crash or a violent short squeeze.
Bitcoin: The true surprise of the past two weeks. It has held up and grown surprisingly well as a neutral reserve asset. It is approaching key resistance levels that will confirm if it has found a floor or if it is waiting for another leg down.
The US Dollar (DXY): The dollar is at a critical decision point. A rising dollar puts a massive squeeze on global liquidity, which will only accelerate the broad market stress.

Conclusion

The illusion of a booming economy is cracking. Protect your capital, manage your risk, and do not blindly trust the narrative that "everything is fine."

Since this is the very first edition of my weekly update format, I would love to hear your thoughts.

Did you enjoy this format (blog + audio) ? Are you looking forward to the more frequent updates ?

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