[Monthly Briefing #3] The "Wile E. Coyote" Economy & Stock Market

Nico DE BONY
Jan 18
3 min read

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ukc6EpqL0w8

So much has happened in the last 5 weeks that I initially planned a one-hour deep dive. But with geopolitical and economic events accelerating, I made an executive decision to pivot to an Executive Briefing format.

Instead of a long lecture, I am giving you the critical signal you need right now to navigate what I call the "Wile E. Coyote" moment.

Just like the cartoon character, the economy has run off the cliff. The legs are still spinning, the illusion of motion is there, but gravity hasn't taken hold... yet.

Here are the key takeaways from this briefing.

1. The Macro Data: The Great Disconnect

How can you plan a business when the government's data is off by nearly 200%?

The reliability of the BLS (Bureau of Labor Statistics) has collapsed. The most glaring example is the October Non-Farm Payrolls:

Initial Report: +108,000 jobs.
Revision 1: -105,000 jobs.
Revision 2: -173,000 jobs.

We went from a "boom" to a massive loss in two revisions. The "GDP Mirage" (Q3 at 4.3%) is similar—it is not organic growth; it is debt-fueled AI Capex and healthcare spending for an aging population. It is inflation disguised as growth.

2. The Stock Market: Stage 4 (Liquidity Illusion)

We are at a decisive point. My analysis suggests we are currently in Stage 4 of the 5 stages that precede a major crash: The Liquidity Illusion.

The Setup: Technical patterns (wedges) and similarities to the 47 days before the 1929 crash suggest a rollover is imminent.
The Catalysts (Q1/Q2): The Yen Carry Trade unwind, a potential US Gov Shutdown 2.0, and upcoming Supreme Court decisions on Fed independence and tariffs.
My Forecast: I expect a reset of -20% to -40% on the S&P 500 and Nasdaq in the coming months, likely followed by massive government intervention.

Strategic Note: The "Santa Claus Rally" failed for the 3rd year in a row—exactly as I predicted in December. We are in a new paradigm where "improbable" events are becoming the norm.

3. The AI Bubble: The Financing Freeze

The "Wile E. Coyote" of the AI sector hasn't looked down yet, but the headwinds are massive:

The "Rubin" Silence: Nvidia's latest GPU announcement was met with market silence. The hype cycle is broken.
The "Buy-to-Kill" Strategy: Nvidia's quiet acquisition of Groq (a superior inference competitor) shows they are moving to protect a monopoly, not innovate.
The Cash Crunch: OpenAI needing last-minute funding and having 360-day payment terms for suppliers is not a sign of a healthy market leader.
Smart Money Exits: Blue Owl Capital pulling out of the Oracle data center deal is a major red flag.

4. Silver & Banking Risk: The "Titanic" Moment

While I am bullish on precious metals long-term, short-term volatility is high.

The Squeeze: The disconnect between Paper (COMEX) and Physical prices is widening.
Systemic Risk: Reports suggest major banks (potentially BofA and Citi) hold short positions equivalent to 5 years of global production. This is mathematically impossible to cover.
The Warning: Banking crises are like the Titanic—everything looks fine until you hit the iceberg. You usually find out on a Friday night when it's too late.

5. Bitcoin: End of the Bear Market?

I have revised my view: I believe we have been in a hidden bear market (a flat base) since early 2025, and we are likely near the end of the final leg down.

Bullish Confirmation: Reclaim and hold $98,000.
Deep Capitulation Risk: If we break $81,000, we could see a flush to $70k before the true bottom is in.

Want Part 2?

I touched on massive topics today—from the specific Geopolitics to the mechanics of the Silver squeeze.

If you want a Deep Dive video on one of these specific topics, comment "PART 2" below the video and tell me which subject worries you the most.

Thanks,

Nico de Bony