YouTube video published on 2026/05/05 This weekly briefing is also available in podcast formats on your favorite platforms (Spotify, Apple Podcasts, etc.). Summary We are currently witnessing a historic divergence between a euphoric stock market and a deteriorating real economy. While major indices like the S&P 500 hover near all-time highs, technical indicators are flashing warnings last seen during the 1929 Great Depression and the 2000 dot-com bubble. This "Wile E. Coyote"

Right now, the market is not easy to navigate. The price action over the past few weeks has become increasingly unusual and untethered from reality. This is typically what we see at the top (max confusion), and most of my indicators still point in that direction For instance, the market is showing a return of euphoria, meme stock mania, and a level of complacency that feels eerily similar to the setups before the 2000, 2008, and 2020 crashes (respectively). Another data point

Note 1 (april 19th) : I'm a bit under the weather this weekend, so there won't be a full analysis video. But I still wanted to give you a quick update to explain what happened, why it happened, and the probabilities going forward. Timing-wise, I also wanted to remind you that this new high could offer a breakeven exit for those who regretted staying invested during the recent low. Especially when you consider that this spectacular bounce we just saw on the SP500 is a statisti

YouTube video published on 2026/04/11 This weekly briefing is also available in podcast formats on your favorite platforms (Spotify, Apple Podcasts, etc.) . Summary This video briefing discusses a warning signal from the Fed regarding the growing exposure of major US banks to private lending, as highlighted by a recent Bloomberg headline. Jamie Dimon's concerns about potential private equity losses and the broader implications for leveraged finance are also examined. We analy

This weekly briefing is also available in podcast formats on your favorite platforms (Spotify, Apple Podcasts, etc.) . Summary After five consecutive weeks of declines, the S&P 500 is bouncing, but investors should beware of a classic bull trap. With markets closed this Friday right as crucial Non-Farm Payroll (NFP) and unemployment data drops, we are facing a massive gap risk going into the weekend. In this video, we uncover Jerome Powell's quiet pivot, analyze the housing m

This weekly briefing is also available in podcast formats on your favorite platforms (Spotify, Apple Podcasts, etc.) . Summary History doesn't repeat itself, but it rhymes (with 2008). Today, the Fed, ECB, BoC, and BoE are preparing to RAISE interest rates for the same erroneous reasons they did between Bear Stearns and Lehman Brothers. In this critical update, I break down why these central banks are getting blinded by a transitory oil shock, ignoring a real economy that is

This monthly briefing is available in three formats . You will find the embedded video and the detailed text right here on this page, or you can listen to the audio podcast on your favorite platforms (Spotify, Apple Podcasts, etc.) . Introduction Welcome to my new weekly market update. If you have been following my content, you know I usually publish deep-dive monthly briefings and occasional ad-hoc alerts. However, the macroeconomic environment is moving so fast right now th

A Shift in Strategy for Better Insights For those of you who have been following my weekly market recaps, thank you for your time and attention. I appreciate your support. As part of my commitment to providing the most effective and time-efficient insights, I'm making a strategic change to my content schedule. Moving forward, I will be shifting from a weekly recap to a more impactful, two-part model: a comprehensive monthly deep dive and ad-hoc "Signal Alerts." Why This Chang

Introduction The story propping up the entire stock market is starting to unravel. For months, the narrative has been simple: an insatiable demand for AI chips is driving a boom so powerful it can single-handedly keep the economy afloat. But new details reveal this narrative has a dirty secret, one involving clever accounting that looks eerily similar to past corporate scandals. This week, the story broke wide open. Mainstream outlets are now openly questioning the "revenue r

Introduction This was the week the Bank of Canada (BoC) and the US Federal Reserve (FED) were finally forced to act, cutting interest rates because even their flawed and delayed data could no longer justify the "wait and see" approach they've clung to for the past six months and year, respectively. At the same time, the AI growth narrative (the only pillar that prevented a technical recession and single-handedly launched the market into a bubble), began to show serious signs

Introduction It’s one of the most confusing times to be an investor. On one hand, you see stock market tickers flashing near all-time highs. On the other, you might have a nagging feeling that the real economy—the world of jobs, household budgets, and small businesses—is telling a different story. This week, that feeling was confirmed. The U.S. government released its official annual benchmark of jobs data, and the numbers revealed a shocking truth: nearly a million jobs that

Introduction Welcome to your weekly briefing. For months, we've discussed the widening chasm between euphoric market highs and a deteriorating economic reality. This week, the facade finally cracked. The latest jobs reports from both the U.S. and Canada didn't just miss expectations—they revealed a structural slowdown that can no longer be ignored. Combined with a rare, century-old crash indicator flashing red and the looming threat of simultaneous housing and stock market bu

Introduction Welcome to your weekly briefing. This week further exposed the widening chasm between euphoric market highs and a deteriorating economic reality. While headlines celebrated Nvidia's earnings, a closer look revealed concerning signs of slowing growth. In Canada, the economy officially contracted for the first time since 2020, a stark warning sign that many are overlooking. My analysis remains unchanged : the market's foundation is increasingly fragile, and the ris

Thumbnail for Nico's Weekly Insights Welcome to your weekly briefing! It was a roller-coaster week in the markets, driven by speculation, high-profile commentary, and a pivotal speech from the Federal Reserve that was widely misinterpreted. The sharp rebound at the end of the week felt euphoric, but a closer look reveals a fragile foundation. My analysis remains unchanged: the technical and fundamental data still point to a needed reset. Let's break down the key signals you m

large iceberg in a calm, very dark ocean On the surface, the market appears confident, hitting new highs with enthusiasm. But underneath, the real economy is telling a much different story. This growing disconnect between market hype and economic reality is something every prudent investor should be watching closely. Earlier this week, I published a post titled " Two Red Flags the Market is Ignoring ," which focused specifically on the record insider selling occurring during

2 major red flags On the surface, the market appears confident. But underneath, there are troubling disconnects that suggest a different story—one of fragile conviction and financial engineering. For the prudent investor, these aren't just curiosities; they are significant red flags. Right now, two powerful signals are flashing warnings: a record lack of belief among the professionals who manage billions, and a surge in corporate buybacks that seems to benefit insiders more t

It’s one of the most confusing times to be an investor. On one hand, you see stock market tickers flashing all-time highs. The news celebrates a resilient market, and the fear of missing out (FOMO) is palpable. It feels like the party is in full swing. On the other hand, you hear whispers—and sometimes shouts—of a slowing economy. You feel a growing sense that something is off, and you're right to pay attention. If you’re feeling caught between the hype and the hard data, you

For weeks, we’ve seen the clouds gathering. Now, the storm has arrived. The market has shifted from a state of euphoria to one of high alert, with key indicators flashing sell signals. We are likely in the beginning stages of either a significant pullback or a new bear market. The challenge is that every storm is different. We could be facing a short-term squall, like the 15-20% corrections we saw last summer and this spring. Or, this could be the start of something more seve

It was another week of disconnect between market headlines and underlying economic reality. While central banks hold their course, a closer look at the data reveals a much weaker foundation than we’re being led to believe. The Federal Reserve and the Bank of Canada are making policy decisions based on what appears to be flawed or lagging information, creating significant risks for the unprepared. Here are the key developments I’m watching and what they mean for you. 1. The Jo

It's one of the most testing moments for any disciplined investor. It doesn't happen during the panic of a market crash, but in the deceptive quiet that follows. You did everything right. You followed your strategy, protected your hard-earned capital, and patiently waited on the sidelines as the storm passed. Then, it happens. The market comes roaring back. Charts go vertical. The news is filled with stories of a "V-shaped recovery." You see people bragging about their gains,