A Pivotal Six Weeks for the Economy, Financial Markets, and the AI Bubble

Nico DE BONY
Nov 14
6 min read

Updated: Nov 15

Monthly Recap #1: October 3rd - November 13th 2025

INTRODUCTION

Welcome to the first monthly recap, as announced in the Oct 15th blog and social media post.

We’ll go over the key stories that mattered over the last six weeks, what they mean, and how they impact your money.

My priority is to help you potentially avoid the type of stock market crashes that downgrade, delay, or outright cancel your retirement plans.

SUMMARY

It is not easy to see a major trend shift while being in it, yet to me the last 6 weeks did feel like a critical turning point for the stock market and the economy. This is what typically happens, however this time it is worth mentioning since they have been completely disconnected since the arrival of Chat GPT in 2022. I have a feeling that we will get the confirmation within the next 3 months.

While the stock market is near all-time-highs, many indicators for the real economy are now at levels worse than 2009 and 2020. Yet, the official message continues to be that all is well… with eerie similarities between 2024-2025 and 2007-2008. The recent acceleration in high profile fraud and bankruptcy likely point to a 2025/2026 “Lehman brothers” turning point.

Simultaneously, the AI narrative (the only story propping up the stock market and GDP) is now showing serious cracks, with high-profile investors like Michael Burry returning to sound the alarm. This weakness is happening just as the U.S. stock market, fueled by record leverage, appears to have hit its top on October 29th. My base case for the S&P 500 is -10% to -20% by the end of January 2026, which will directly or indirectly affect most asset prices.

While gold and silver have had a healthy, and necessary, pullback, the fundamental drivers for them have not disappeared and remain stronger than ever.

Bitcoin also experienced extreme volatility, hitting a new all-time high before suffering the largest single-day liquidation event in its history, leaving the bull run in question.

In short, we potentially have a perfect storm with a crashing economy, a stalled stock market , and critical data about to be released in the next 2-3 months. Will this be the end of the short but intense 2020-2025 bull market, or is there one more euphoric phase ahead? Either way, the defined-risk options strategies I use and teach have never been more valuable!

Let’s dive in!

THE MAJOR SIGNALS (What You Need to Know)

Here are the key stories that mattered over the last six weeks, what they mean, and how they impact your money.

The AI Bubble Begins to Crack

What Happened: The "invincible" AI narrative, which has been the sole driver of market growth, has gone from having a few cracks in September to being fully exposed. This has been amplified by the return of Michael Burry, who has been highlighting the speculative mania.
What It Means: The AI "house of cards" is weakening. We're seeing questionable accounting (like amortizing GPUs over 5-6 years when they are obsolete in 2-3) and even reports of Nvidia "begging" for sales . This puts immense pressure on the upcoming Nvidia earnings call, which is now a must-watch, "make-or-break" event for the entire market.
For Your Money: This is a time for extreme caution, not FOMO. The market has priced in perfection for AI, and any sign of weakness could trigger a severe repricing.
➡️ Watch: In my November 9th video, I did a deep dive into these "Enron 2.0" signals.

The U.S. Government Shutdown

What Happened: What began as an unexpected political drama became the longest shutdown in U.S. history. While it is now officially over, the damages haven't yet surfaced.
What It Means: We are about to be hit with a "data avalanche" as delayed economic reports are released. This data will be key for both investors and, crucially, for the Federal Reserve as it heads into its next rate-cut decision.
For Your Money: Expect massive volatility. The market hates uncertainty, and this data dump will replace speculation with hard facts, forcing the market to react.

The "Real" U.S. Economy

What Happened: A deep disconnect has formed. The government and the Fed claim the economy is strong, but most people have been experiencing a recession since 2022. The data backs this up, with many indicators at levels worse than 2009 and 2020.
What It Means: The Fed's models appear to be broken. The housing market is now in a dangerous territory, with new homes becoming cheaper than the median resale house , and rents turning negative year-over-year—a clear sign of deflation, not just disinflation.
For Your Money: Don't trust the official "soft landing" narrative. Trust the data, which shows clear signs of recession.

Gold & Silver

What Happened: After the recent parabolic run (which I highlighted in videos before it started), precious metals had a sharp pullback. I also called this top in a video the day before the big drop.
What It Means: This pullback was not only likely but healthy and needed to reset expectations . The fundamental drivers (global uncertainty, peace talk failures, debasement) have not disappeared; in fact, they may be even stronger now.
For Your Money: As I mentioned in a recent video, my base case remains that both gold and silver will likely be higher by year-end . This pullback could be a re-entry opportunity for those who missed the first run.
➡️ Watch: My video of the Gold pullback from November 2nd .

The U.S. Stock Market

What Happened: I have been warning for weeks that the risk/reward ratio was getting worse. The market has been "running on fumes," driven by massive divergences (where only a few stocks go up) and a record use of leverage and debt by retail investors . On October 29th, the S&P 500 hit a new high, which I pointed as either the top or the start of a topping process.
What It Means: A topping process is usually choppy and confusing, not clear—much like the top at the end of 2024 . A double top, or even a slightly higher all-time high, is still possible before a significant drop.
For Your Money: My base case is a 10-20% pullback from the October high by the end of January . This would likely prompt emergency rate cuts from the Fed, causing a rebound (40-60% retracement of the drop). After that, the market will likely go to one of two extremes: a major crash or a "melt-up."
➡️ Watch: My breakdown of the market's topping process (Nov 2nd video) .

Crypto

What Happened: Bitcoin hit a new all-time high, which was immediately followed by the largest single-day liquidation event in crypto history . This triggered a decent pullback to the major $100K support level. I am watching the weekly close, as a confirmation (i.e. 2nd weekly candle) below $95,000 would likely mean that the bull run is over.
➡️ Watch: I recorded a video immediately after this crash to explain what it meant for investors.
What It Means: The market has been "reset." Interestingly, the Fear & Greed indicator is now lower than it was during the FTX crash, suggesting extreme fear. Many believe the 4-year cycle ended on October 6th, but when everyone agrees on one outcome, something different almost always happens.
For Your Money: The contrarian view is that the bull run is not over. One last euphoric move for both Bitcoin and altcoins (an "altseason") might still be ahead (by the end of 2026).

Looking Forward: What I'm Watching

This "signal over noise" approach means focusing only on the catalysts that truly matter. Here is what's on my radar for the rest of November and early December:

Nvidia Earnings (Next Week): This is the market's "make-or-break" event.

Nov 21st Options Expiration: We will likely see another all-time high in options volume, which can create volatility.

The Banking Liquidity Crisis: This is still happening under the radar. I'm watching for bankruptcies, REPO usage, SOFR-IORB spikes, and the closure of "high-grade" hedge funds that remind me of what happened to Bear Sterns in 2007 -the canary in the coal mine for what would unfold in the fall of 2008. (➡️I covered this in my Nov 9th video).

December 1st (End of Fed QT): The scheduled end of the Fed's Quantitative Tightening.

December 10th (Next FOMC Meeting): The Fed's rate cut decision and, more importantly, the tone of the press conference.

The "Data Deluge": The release of all the delayed government data from the shutdown.

The Wildcard: The ongoing tariff negotiations, which could be massively disrupted if the Supreme Court rules that Trump must refund the estimated $3T collected so far.

Canada: The BoC decision, Q3 GDP (will it confirm a technical recession?), as well as the Nov. 17th budget vote (likely to result in either a federal election or a credit rating downgrade due to the budget’s massive deficit).