Arrêtez d'acheter la baisse (Buy The Dip). Faites ceci à la place.

La vidéo originale ci-dessous est en anglais, mais une version doublée en français (par IA) sera disponible d'ici quelques jours sur la même vidéo.

Résumé de l'épisode

Est-ce le moment d'acheter la baisse ou de fuir le marché ?

Dans cet épisode de mon Podcast "Investir intelligement, pas avec acharnement", je discute avec Kristen des signaux contradictoires du marché actuel. Nous observons un décalage majeur ("The Great Disconnect") : les marchés boursiers atteignent des sommets historiques alors que l'économie réelle (et le marché de l'emploi) clignote en rouge.

Si vous êtes tiraillé entre la peur de manquer une opportunité (FOMO) et la peur d'un krach, vous n'êtes pas seul.

Dans cette analyse, j'explique mon "Le meilleur des deux mondes" pour naviguer dans cet environnement : comment sécuriser vos économies tout en gardant une porte ouverte pour une croissance agressive.

Points Clés à Retenir

1. L'approche “Le meilleur des deux mondes”: Investir intelligemment et saisire les opportunitées tactiques

La plupart des gens pensent qu'ils doivent choisir entre être un investisseur "sécuritaire" ou un trader "risqué". Je crois que vous pouvez être les deux, à condition de les séparer.

• La fondation (investissement) : Pour les objectifs à moyen-long terme (1-4 ans). L'objectif est la sécurité et le cash-flow.

• Le bonus (Swing Trading) : Une fois la fondation sécurisée, il est possible d’utiliser une petite portion du capital (5-10 %) pour du trading.

2. Le "grand décalage" (Great Disconnect)

Nous avons discuté des dangers d'ignorer la macroéconomie en ce moment. Le marché boursier est évalué à la perfection, mais les données réelles (comme les rapports sur l'emploi et la hausse des défauts de crédit) racontent une autre histoire.

3. La stratégie “Barbell"

Au lieu d'essayer de prédire le juste milieu, je préconise la stratégie "Barbell". Cela implique de se positionner aux deux extrêmes :

• Sécurité extrême : Liquidités et obligations (pour survivre à un krach).

• Asymétrie élevée : De petits paris calculés sur des actifs à forte croissance ou des options (pour profiter si la bulle continue). Cela évite la "zone de danger" des rendements moyens où vous prenez tout le risque pour des gains médiocres.

4. Perspectives de marché : taux d'intérêt & crypto

Nous avons terminé avec un regard sur l'avenir immédiat :

• La Fed : Pourquoi les baisses de taux arrivent, non pas parce que l'inflation est vaincue, mais probablement parce que les banques centrales tentent d'éviter que quelque chose ne brise.

  
  

• Bitcoin : Pourquoi je vois un potentiel "short squeeze" (liquidation des vendeurs à découvert) faire grimper les prix à moyen terme, malgré ma prudence à court terme.

Ressources Mentionnées

• Liste de diffusion gratuite : Je prépare une nouvelle série éducative sur le Swing Trading. Rejoignez la liste ici pour être notifié du lancement.

  
  

• Réserver un appel stratégique gratuit : Vous n'êtes pas sûr que votre portefeuille soit à l'épreuve d'un krach ? Cliquez ici pour réserver un moment avec moi.

Transcript (en anglais)

Kristen (00:31)

Hi everybody, welcome to the podcast powered by OPTI Strategies featuring Nico de Bony the founder of OPTI Strategies Thanks so much for being here with me today. I'm so excited to get into everything, especially despite the way the markets are moving right now. So you've recently started taking or talking about a dual approach to the markets. How do you separate your long-term investing from your short-term trading?

Nico (00:38)

Thank you for inviting me back.

So that's a good question. A lot of people ask me about the swing trading versus investing or any kind of different approach. And I've been telling people I'm not ready to teach the swing trading part because even though I'm getting good results, I haven't done it for long enough to feel good enough to teach people, but it's coming. So people can register for the mailing list to know when I'll be teaching this. So the dual approach is really first to secure long-term investment. So that's the part of the money that you don't want to lose.

the portion you work so hard to save and scrap, you know, along the years. So this part should be secure, but it doesn't prevent you from having a small portion of your money, fun money in a way to invest into those potential trades that can return a very, very good, you know, return investment basically. And so that's the dual approach I've been using myself and I've had several people approach me because they want to do the same thing. So I told them, you know, I cannot tell you what to do for the swing trading, but I can help you liberate the cash to do whatever you want with it, including.

swing trading. So that's kind of the idea. And one of the ways to do it is the selling a call to replace stocks. One of the strategies we did during the demo, which was basically you had like *$64,000 worth of stock into SPY ETF. And if you replace it with a call that would cost about 6K, I think, if I remember, you were basically freeing up about $48,000 that you could do whatever you want with. So maybe most of it in safe, you know,

Kristen (01:56)

selling a code to replace one of the stretches we did during the demo, which was basically you had like $60,000 worth of stock into Spite yet.

Nico (02:20)

cash-like equivalent ⁓ assets. And then maybe a small portion of it could be into some momentum trade where you want to invest in some tech company you heard of where you think you might have an edge or something like that. So that's the dual approach that I've been talking about that people really seem to be ⁓ interested in because they don't want to be stuck into one box. Like the long-term investor or the speculator, they want to do a little bit of both, but in a way that's kind of safe. And so that's why I'll be talking more and more about this because I see that it's really resonating with people.

Kristen (02:36)

interested in because they don't want to be stuck into one box like the long-term investor or the speaker. They want to do a little bit of both but in a way that's kind of safe. And so that's why I'll be talking more and more about this because I see that it's really resonating with people.

Yeah, no, absolutely. feel like that's what everybody wants, right? They have their long-term investment that keeps paying them continuously based on how everything goes up and then using that money that you got through your investments, you can pay for other things. But now you have that money that you made through your investment and you're using it to make more money. So that's pretty nice.

Nico (03:07)

Yeah. I think I know

why or where it comes from. You know, when you go to the bank, they ask you to fill out an investor profile and basically they put you in the box. Are you a safe investor or a middle investor or aggressive investor? And so I think that's probably the framing of where this came from, but you don't have to do it this way. And for the swing trading part or even the speculative trading part, as long as you do it with a small portion of your portfolio, you know, most people say one to 2 % of your portfolio.

Kristen (03:14)

Okay.

Nico (03:36)

It's okay because if you lose it, you're not going to be losing much. You will recover. The problem is too many people, they speculate with the money that's supposed to be locked in for the long term. And so that's where people I think made the mistake of trying to do both and getting into the emotional trading of putting too much money into it and then getting stuck. so that's the problem of the idea with the dual approach. But yeah, it's definitely something worth exploring, I think, for most people.

Kristen (04:03)

Okay, so yeah, so in that respect, a lot of people think that they have to choose between being a safe investor and a risky investor, but you actually use options to bridge this gap, right? Yes.

Nico (04:12)

Yes,

because with options I can do what the pros are doing and everyday investors can do it as well. It's basically to ensure that you never are at risk of losing 80 or 90 % of your portfolio when you have those big crash like 2001, 2008, 1987, 1929 and so on. And so it's just about knowing that there are ways to invest safely. The analogy I like to use is driving without brakes or an airbag. That's how most people invest, but the pros, they're not doing this. so...

If you learn about options, it doesn't mean you have to use them or even use complex options. But there are ways to really manage risk by using options and to liberate cash to be able to use it for other things as well. So that's why I love options.

Kristen (04:52)

Amazing, yeah. In your last demo as well, you showed us how to use options to free up massive amounts of cash. ⁓ Once investors have that extra capital, what should they actually be doing with it?

Nico (05:01)

So I can't really give the investing advice because it's personalized and all that. But really what most people do is they put the vast majority of it in a safe cash equivalent asset like a T-Bill or an ETF that pays you monthly dividend or quarterly dividend, that kind of thing, because they don't want the value of that portion to vary too much, especially if there's a big crash. And then they take a small portion of it. So it can be 5 to 10 % for

opportunities for tactical investing, momentum trades, swing trading, that kind of thing. Some even do day trading, so they have 95 % of it in a safe portion, and then they can have fun with 5% because they know that if they lose it, it's not going to be the end of the world. But that 5%, if it doubles, that will really increase the performance of offer portfolio. So that's the idea.

Kristen (05:48)

Nice, okay. So for the investing side of your portfolio, you look at the big picture or the macro ⁓ economic first. Why is that dangerous to ignore in global economics right now?

Nico (05:54)

Mm-hmm. Yep.

I think it's because

of the big disconnect that we've been seeing since 2020. When you saw the economy going in one direction and the stock market going in different direction. And same thing around 2022, the economy started to go around the hill and decline and the stock market took off because of the AI bubble that just started at that time. So it seems like people were basing their long-term investing strategy based on what they think the economy is doing based on the headline. They might be heading right for the wall.

And so that's really scary because if the market turns and they don't have 10, 20, 30 years to get their money back, what are they going to do? You and most, that's why most people they have to sell. It's forced selling at the worst possible time because they know that, you know, their retirement will be gone. They will have to downgrade their lifestyle or the years of saving will be gone in an instant. So that's why it's important to pay attention to the big picture stuff that's happening to be able to.

Kristen (06:38)

It's for selling at the worst possible time because they know that their retirement will be gone, they will have to downgrade their lifestyle, the years of selling will begin in an instant. that's why it's important to pay attention to the big pictures stuff that's happening to be able to

Nico (06:57)

you know, have a portfolio that can at least survive whatever can happen. We don't know what can happen, but there's a way to position for what can possibly happen. For example, that's the barbell strategy.

Kristen (06:57)

have a portfolio that can at least survive whatever can happen. We don't know what can happen, but there's a way to position for what can possibly happen. For example, that's the Bible strategy.

Nico (07:08)

I don't know if you heard of it. So basically you're going at both extremes. So you're positioning your portfolio in a way that it will grow whether the economy crashes or does very well. And so that's a way with options to minimize the risk. So you put a little bit of money in both.

Kristen (07:09)

Explain please. So basically you're going at both extremes. So you're positioning your portfolio in a way that it will grow whether the economy crashes or does very well. And so that's a way, your options to minimize the risk, to put a little bit of money in both.

And then most of the rest is in cash or cash equivalent that gets you interest. And so this way, you're not at risk because if the market does nothing, you don't lose much.

Nico (07:24)

And then most of the rest is in cash or cash equivalent that gets you interest. And so this way, you're not at risk because if the market does nothing, you don't lose much. You

still collect the interest on the bulk of your portfolio. And if the market goes into one direction or the other, either because the economy is crashing, which is likely, or it could go up, but not because the economy is doing well, because the money printing is restarting, which is another potential risk. And so that's why it's ⁓ an interesting strategy that I've been applying myself because I think it's...

Kristen (07:53)

It's a very dangerous time. We saw in the past weeks how the market can really, know, dump very quickly, rebound quickly, but it's not a real rebound, just like the current one of the past seven or 10 days. And so it's during those situations where it's really hard to get a read on the market and having that strategy of avoiding the middle.

Nico (07:53)

a very dangerous time. We saw in the past few weeks how the market can really, you know, dump very quickly, rebound quickly, but it's not a real rebound, just like the current one of the past seven or 10 days. And so it's during those situations where it's really hard to get a read on the market and having that strategy of avoiding the middle

and focusing on, you know, the worst and the best case scenario can be something that really helps at least to sleep better at night.

Kristen (08:19)

Yeah, for sure. I was just going to bring up the fact that over the last couple of weeks, like even before we did a podcast a few months ago and you know, the S &P 500 was reaching new highs, Bitcoin was up and then, you know, you kept indicating that, okay, this is overinflated. Everybody take a look at these macro indicators. This is bad. And then of course, a couple of weeks ago, boom, everything crashed. So it is super important.

Nico (08:42)

And it's kind of funny because

during that demo, I did some technical analysis and I told you there is 95 % chance the S&P500 will be below that level. And it was below that level on that date. And so you see, like you don't need in theory to read the news if you're good with technical analysis. Most people are not. So that's why I'm kind of trying to explain what I'm seeing with my analysis of both technical and macro. But there are ways to know with probabilities what is likely to happen and then to position accordingly. And so with that demo, we were able to collect some cash

by selling a call option above the level of the S &P that was never reached to reduce the cost of the insurance. So for those few months, we were sleeping well at night knowing that whatever happened, we were covered And that's the exact time of strategy that I'm teaching my clients because this is the kind of stuff that they didn't even know existed. And so it's really important when you reach the levels of the stock market, we have right now with valuations that make no sense. It can continue for a long time. I'm not saying it's going to crash tomorrow.

Kristen (09:12)

Selling equal option of one.

Nico (09:41)

I'm just saying it's better to be a few weeks early than one day late, basically.

Kristen (09:46)

And that's beautiful to not have to listen to the news, especially in spite of everything that's happening. Like even the Canadian economy is very highly tied to the American economy right now.

Nico (09:51)

Yeah. People don't realize that even their

mortgage is more linked to the Japanese central bank than what happened in Canada in the US. So it's kind of scary because of the bond market. It's a global bond market. And so the way the Japanese yen has been going up and the inflation has been going up, the bank of Japan might have to increase rates, which will bring back a lot of money that was parked in the Canadian stock market, US stock market. And so everything could crash here, pushing yields high up.

Kristen (10:05)

Okay.

I have

higher on.

Nico (10:20)

higher on

mortgages because it's related to risk and all that. So people don't realize that what's happening in Japan could affect their mortgage renewal in Canada.

Kristen (10:29)

Yeah, I want an episode about that actually. That's

super interesting. That's crazy to me. ⁓

Nico (10:33)

I might do a video on

the topic because it seems to be interesting for lot of people.

Kristen (10:36)

Yeah, totally. again, like I said, that's how you know technical indicators are very good. Like at that point, you can pay attention to the stats and the math rather than just the emotions of the market or the emotions of the news because the market is highly emotional. ⁓

Nico (10:46)

Mm-hmm.

And it's often misleading.

know, that's one thing I try to do in my video. I always try to show the headline and then under the surface, it's usually the opposite. And I have a good example for Canada. The GDP came out for the last quarter positive, but it's only positive because of a technical accounting thing. It's because the imports were lower than expected. It's not because the economy is doing well. It's the opposite. So right now it's kind of showing a growth factor, but only because of lower imports, which is boosting the balance.

And so people looking at the headlines say, Canada GDP went up. There is no technical recession. All is good. Under the surface, it's the opposite. It's getting weaker and weaker, but people don't realize it until it's too late.

Kristen (11:26)

Yeah.

And that's why people say the house always wins when it comes to that kind of stuff. That's crazy. So anyway, going back to this, what is the biggest mistake you see people making when they try to build a portfolio for the next one to two years?

Nico (11:32)

Yeah, yeah.

I think they look too much like most financial advisors at the past to predict the future and they do it in a linear way. So if the last two years had 40 % growth per year, they think it's the new normal and they will plan accordingly and so they will over lever themselves. And that's actually what we see in the graph. There's never been so much margin and so much debt and so much leverage ETF being used by retail investors to bet on the market going up like insanely. And so

It's actually interesting because in the US, in the past few days, the financial authorities rejected new ETFs for 5X leverage on a single stock because they say, no, no, that's too much. We're stopping this speculation right now. So they still allow 2X or 3X on some stocks. But yeah, people wanted 5X on Nvidia. So an ETF on a single stock with 5X leverage. So basically, if the stock drops by 20%, you lose everything.

Kristen (12:37)

Oh my god.

That's crazy. That's a little bit scary. we think something big is gonna happen, but again, you gotta take a look at everything in the macroeconomic trends over here, right?

Nico (12:42)

But it just shows you the mindset of the people right now. Like, it's not euphoria yet, but it's getting pretty close to it.

Yeah,

yeah, yeah. So yeah, don't look at the future and build your portfolio based on the past few years, especially because the growth, growth, you know, of the past few years has been out of the ordinary. Like people think it's the new normal to have like 40 % growth in six months. Like this is insane.

Kristen (13:10)

Yeah, we're still working off of whatever happened during COVID, right? Yeah. Yeah, takes a while. So right now we're in December. We're seeing the Santa Claus Rally effect as we head into our year end. Do you think this momentum will carry into 2026?

Nico (13:13)

Yeah, it's still going through the pipes.

Mm.

I don't think so. And I think the reason why is seasonality works when usually when it's a normal year. It's anything but a normal year. mean, the market started by crashing like 30 percent. Then there was a 40% to 60% rebound depending on what you're looking at. This is far from a normal year. And because also the rally has been nonstop since the April lows, we've had the usually have a pause in the summer, which allows for the Santa Claus rally into year end.

So I think people have front run this rally so much that there is nothing much left. So Stock Market has been running on fumes since I called the top on October 29th. And when I say the top, I mean the start of the topping process, not necessarily the exact top. But so right now, I think it's just going to go a bit sideways until there's some kind of crash, 20 % by, 20 to 30 % by January, at the end of January, and then probably a rebound. And then.

It's anyone's guess because we don't know how the government and central bank will react and how people will react to those reactions. So, you you cannot plan too many steps ahead, but just short term, the market is overextended. It's running on fumes. The big players are getting, are selling their big positions to retail investors who are buying the dip. So it's just a matter of time before there's some kind of reset because the 5 % correction we had recently is not enough to reset the market. So.

Kristen (14:25)

anyone's guess because we don't know how they got

The market is over extended, it's raining on fumes. The big players are selling their big positions to retail investors who are buying the dip.

Yeah. So

I don't see it going a lot higher. It could go a bit higher, just to reach maybe that 7,000 on the SPX, just because it's a big number that all the newspaper would love to headlines about, you know, say, hey, finally I reached 7,000, invest, all that. But one kid here I've seen the past few days that really tells me that it's actually going down there, least in the short term. Almost all the financial advisors and bankers are projecting growth for the stock market for next year. And so almost every time they are wrong. When they are projecting, they're just gonna go down and goes up one day.

Nico (14:53)

I don't see it going a lot higher. could go a bit higher just to reach maybe that 7,000 on the SPX, just because it's a big number that all the newspaper would love to headlights about, know, saying, hey, finally reach 7,000, invest, blah, blah, blah. But one key indicator I've seen the past few days that really tells me that it's likely going down at least in the short term. Almost all the financial advisors and bankers are projecting growth for the stock market for next year. And so almost every time they are wrong. When they are projecting, there's going to go down and goes up when they...

Projecting goes up, usually goes down. So when everybody is on the same side of the boat, the opposite happens.

Kristen (15:27)

Right, yeah, both got a cap size. Right.

Nico (15:29)

Yeah, and they keep also pushing their estimate so not to look foolish, like for example for gold,

if you look almost every month they revise up their estimate for the year. So the other year like, look, we said it was gonna be like 4500 and it's 4400 so we're so close, but at the beginning of the year they said it's not gonna be above 3000 and they keep bumping, bumping. So yeah, don't listen to the big banks and the financial analysts on Wall Street because they are full of it.

Kristen (15:55)

Wow, yeah, I mean that totally makes sense, you know again comes back to the house always wins in that context. Yeah, very true. Now speaking of it not being a normal year, ⁓ usually we'd be discussing the job reports today, but it's been delayed till after the Fed meeting. Does this lack of official or financial data worry you?

Nico (16:00)

and they have something to sell you. So, you know, there's that bias.

Mm-hmm.

Yes, because

I think the main reason why it was delayed is because it's not good. I mean, we're talking about the official government data for the US. but there have been some private data that we've been collecting and it's really bad. published a video yesterday about it too, looking at the ADP report in the US and the challenger report. And again, the headline don't look too bad, but when I look deeper, it's really bad. We're talking like, you know, back to...

2020 level for ⁓ layoffs. So think about the state of mind of people back then thinking it was the end of the world. Right now, the firing at the same level for small business and for hiring, especially seasonal hiring, it's like level 20, 20, 20, 10 level and seasonal is 20, 20, 12, which is the all time, all time high, all time low. The worst basically. So it's the worst for like 10, 15 years for hiring. The worst in 2020 for firing.

Kristen (17:06)

Yeah.

Nico (17:15)

So that should tell you something about the state of the labor market. And so I think that's why they didn't want the stock market to tumble before Christmas, before the holidays and all that. And so they're trying to just push, the can down the road and hopefully, you know, hope that the economy will turn around in the new year. I really think that eventually it's just gonna have that big reset and then we'll see what happens, how they react. yeah, I think it's really bad and that's one of the reasons why they are not releasing it in time.

Kristen (17:26)

Keep the gun under

Eventually, it's just going to have that big reset, and then we'll see what happens, how they react. I think it's really bad.

Yeah, definitely, because they had that whole government shutdown and everything, so I was thinking maybe it was delayed because of that. They don't have all their ducks in a row, ⁓ yeah.

Nico (17:48)

They even cancelled October. So they released September two months late. It's not revised yet. So it's just the

first number, which is always too optimistic. October was cancelled. I've never seen that before. And November was pushed after the FOMC. it's kind of suspicious. Yeah, exactly. Like it's not the kind of thing you want to see. But I think they will cut either way, which is something I've been seeing for the past two, three months. So despite the market saying initially they will cut, no, they won't cut. Yes, they will cut.

Kristen (18:03)

Yeah, so just looks sketchy.

Nico (18:19)

There's always the possibility of a discrepancy between what they should do and what they will do, just like the Bank of Canada. They should be cutting, but they won't be cutting just because of the human element. The governor of the Bank of Canada said, I won't be cutting, I'm done. So basically, the ego gets in the way of cutting, regardless of what happens. I keep seeing really bad data for the Canadian economy, but because of this, they will likely not do it. But I think in January, they will be back to it, just because the economy is really turning over, both in Canada and the US.

Kristen (18:46)

Yeah.

Nico (18:46)

And I

remember also, sorry to cut you, the recession call is always announced too late. Like the 2008, the 2007 recession, well that started in 2007, it was only called a year later in December 2008 when it was obvious to everyone after Lehman and all that. So that's why you can't wait for the government to say we are in recession. Like when they say it, it's because it's almost basically over. So, yeah.

Kristen (18:49)

Yeah. The 2007 recession, well that started in 2007, was what we call a year later in December 2008, when it was obvious to everyone. So that's why you can't wait for the government to say we're in recession, like what they say is because it's almost musically over.

Yeah, you can't lie to anyone anymore at that point. ⁓

You did just mention that the market expects a rate cut. Do you think they would be cutting because they won the fight against inflation or is there something else going on?

Nico (19:22)

The inflation fight has been over for a long time. Basically, they keep using inflation as a scapegoat to not cut because, of course, they don't like Trump as well. there's that fight between the Fed and the White House. But the tariffs have not brought the inflation that was pushed forward as the narrative for not cutting. And so now the only thing they were standing on was the job market, which three months ago they were still saying that it was strong and resilient, which we know is a big lie. But basically,

There is no reason not to cut. They should have been cutting earlier. Because one of reasons why people say that they shouldn't be cutting is because it's going to blow more air into the bubble. But those big AI companies can borrow either way. The high interest rates are hurting the small and medium-sized business. So that's why it's important to cut. It has nothing to do with politics. It's about stop hurting the economy of anything but AI. And if it helps the AI company,

Kristen (20:06)

The high interest rates are reaching the small and medium-sized business. So that's why it's important to cut. It has nothing to do with politics. It's about stop hurting the economy of anything but AI. And if it helps the AI company

raise more debt because some investors want to invest

Nico (20:21)

Raise more debt because some investors want to invest blindly

in them. Let them do it, but at least stop hurting the small and medium sized companies, both in the US and Canada. so that's why I think it's, they will keep cutting and there will likely be emergency cuts in the next few months once they realize that the economy is rolling over hard. Because once you start having that rollover that most people realize is happening, it's kind of a self-fulfilling prophecy because then people don't spend. And so you have that.

Kristen (20:32)

They will keep cutting and there will likely be emergency cuts in the next few months once they realize that the economy is rolling over hard. Once you start having that roll over that most people realize is happening, it's kind of self-fulfilling prophecy because then people don't spend. And so you have

less funding leads to more and less funding and so on. So that's one of the reasons why the central banks and government usually, they will never tell you bad things about the economy because they're too scared of that fulfilling prophecy. But when you look under the surface,

Nico (20:48)

Less spending leads to more layoffs, leads to less spending and so on. So that's one of the reasons why the central banks and government usually, they will never tell you about things about the economy, because they are too scared of that self-fulfilling prophecy. But when you look under the surface,

you can see the signs and not be surprised by it.

Yeah. Well, especially if you have money on the line, you know, and you don't want to, you know, go back to work instead of retiring on what you thought was safe.

Kristen (21:15)

Yeah,

no for sure. Now I kind of want to talk about crypto a little bit like we thought that crypto is gonna have huge projections by the end of this year. Companies are still massively investing in Bitcoin right now especially. As a swing trader are you looking at Bitcoin or are you looking at other opportunities or what do you think is happening with that right now?

Nico (21:23)

Thank you.

So right now I'm focusing more on Bitcoin, a bit on Ethereum as well, ⁓ through the ETFs because I can use options. But for the rest, I'm not sure there will be a Alt season. There might be one, might be short-lived, but it seems like it was more like the story of the previous bull market. This one was more about the big players getting in, the sovereign funds getting in, even governments getting in, ⁓ big banks getting in. All the people were saying, I'll never touch Bitcoin.

finally are getting on board. I don't know if you saw the news about Vanguard. You know, how it started, how it's going. Basically, they were saying we will never give crypto and access to our client. And now there's a new CEO say we should have done it from day one, basically. it's people always get Bitcoin the price they deserve. If they want to criticize it, eventually they will come around to it. But technically, I've been telling people that, you know, October 6 was likely the top.

Kristen (22:09)

sorry, how it's going. Basically they were saying we will never give crypto and access to our client. And now there's a new COSA, we should have done it from day one, basically. People always get the kind of price they deserve. If they want to criticize it, eventually they will come around to it. But technically, I've been telling people that October 6th was likely the top.

Nico (22:33)

And so that's why I was expecting the bounce that we had in the past few days.

Kristen (22:33)

And so that's why I was expecting the bounce that we had in the past few days.

Nico (22:38)

And we did touch the lower bound of my projection for the bounce. So I don't know if the bounce will continue potentially until the FOMC. But if Bitcoin takes a nosedive before the FOMC, usually that's not a good sign because Bitcoin tends to move before the broad market does because it's more attuned to the liquidity change and the market environment change and all that.

Kristen (22:38)

We did touch the lower bound of my projection for the bounce. So I don't know if the bounce will continue potentially until the FOMC. But it becomes, it knows that before the FOMC. Usually that's not a sign because Bitcoin thinks to move before the bull market does because it's more tuned to the liquidity change and the market environment change and all that.

Nico (22:59)

Short term, I'm not very bullish on Bitcoin. In fact, I bought more put-stand calls on the ETFs just to balance out the risk. So I'm still positioned with the Barbell strategy. If it crashes, I make a lot of money. If it goes up, I make a lot of money. If it does nothing, I lose a little bit. But right now, think the big players are positioning for a big move into the next six months. So I think in the next six months, we will see new all-time high and potentially the euphoric top that we haven't seen in the small market, which I think has been a bit...

Kristen (23:03)

and calls on ETFs just to balance out the risk. So I'm still positioned with the reverse strategy. If it crashes, I make a lot of money. If it goes up, I make a lot of money. If it does nothing, I lose a little bit. But right now, think the big players are positioning for a move into the next six months. So I think in the next six months, we will see new, or an eye, and potentially the offer that we haven't seen in this whole market.

Nico (23:29)

weird and delayed versus the previous ones. But there are so many new dynamic that have entered that it's not really surprising in a way that it's happening this way. So, yeah, I think it's going to be interesting for people who have the patience if they are already in not to sell at the worst possible time before it potentially jumps. Plus there are so many people positioned with shorts, not the kind I'm doing like actually selling short shares of the ETF that if they are forced to buy it, it's the...

Kristen (23:31)

There's so many dynamics that I've entered that it's not really surprising in a way that it's happening this way. So yeah, I think it's going to be interesting for people who have locations that they are already in, not to sell at the worst possible time before the potentially jams. Plus there are so many people positioned with shorts.

not like I'm doing like actually selling short shares of the ETF that if they are forced to buy it, it's

a vicious circle because they have to buy it to purchase the price, other people have to buy it to purchase the price and that's how you get the short squeeze. So I wouldn't be surprised if in like six months we get like 10,000 or even the $20,000 a day, Bitcoin just becomes...

Nico (23:58)

a vicious circle because they have to buy it so pushes the price, other people have to buy it so pushes the price and that's how you get the short squeeze. And so I wouldn't be surprised if in next six months we get like a 10,000 or even a $20,000 a day in Bitcoin just because

all the shorts get flush in one go.

Kristen (24:13)

Right, yeah. Now, with all the large players getting into Bitcoin, do you think it's the end of the four-year cycle volatility or do you think that over time... Like, what do you think is happening with everybody investing in Bitcoin? Is that going to make the price more stable? Yeah. Okay.

Nico (24:31)

Yeah, I think we're

already seeing it because in the past with everything we've seen in the past two, three months, I think it would have easily been a 90, not 90, minus 80%, just like the big drops we saw in the past. And so the fact that it only dropped by 30 some percent and people were, you know, the sentiment was extreme fear, at the bottom, the 2022, people were more fearful a few weeks ago than during the FTX crash when everybody was saying Bitcoin is dead. So that should tell you something about.

Kristen (24:36)

Mm-hmm.

Yeah.

Nico (24:59)

Now the volatility is so compressed that the new minus 80 % might be the minus 30 % we experienced. And so like I said on my analysis recently, I don't think we have seen the bottom of Bitcoin yet, because I think when the stock market will tank, Bitcoin will tank as well. It's not because it's a bad asset, it's just because when people have margin calls, they sell the good assets to pay for those margin calls. That's why when you have a stock market crash, you see gold drop as well initially and then recovers.

Kristen (25:16)

not because it's by assets, it's just because when people have margin calls, they sell the good assets to pay for those margin calls. That's why when have a stock market crash, see gold drop as well initially and then recovers.

Nico (25:28)

I think Bitcoin will be the same, just because people have to sell good assets to pay

Kristen (25:29)

I think we come with the same. It's because people have to sell good assets to

Nico (25:32)

for the bad, you know, in the meantime. But I don't think it's going to drop too low. that's why I said lowest I can see Bitcoin going is 70k. But I would be surprised if it drops below that 75 to 78 window during the potential January crash of the broad stock market.

Kristen (25:35)

I don't think it's going to drop too low, and that's why I said lowest I can see Bitcoin going is 78. But I would be surprised if it drops below that 75 to 78 window during the potential general crash of the growth cycle.

Yeah, so guess it's kind of nice that Bitcoin's becoming a little bit less risky. But at the same time, I like what you said. Everybody buys Bitcoin at the price they deserve. I think that's very fitting.

Nico (25:59)

Yeah, one thing I would mention that is kind of strategic right now, the options are really cheap because the volatility has completely dropped on options for Bitcoin on the ETF. for example, IBIT, which is the biggest one. I B I T for people who don't know. And basically it used to be that the volatility was very high because people were either very bullish or very bearish. Right now, people are mostly neutral. And so the expected volatility on the stock is really low. And so as a result, the premium

Kristen (26:05)

Okay.

Nico (26:29)

to buy a put or a call is really low. So it's not financial advice. It's just an observation I'm sharing with you in case you're interested in looking into

Kristen (26:37)

Nice, yeah, I definitely am. I always love crypto, so we love to see what's going on with that. But yeah, thanks so much for educating us today, Nico. ⁓ If any of the viewers want to know when these podcasts are available on your favorite podcast platform, make sure to register for Nico's free mailing list, and the link will be in the description below. Thanks.

Nico (26:39)

You

Thank you.